Cost control and commercial certainty are persistent challenges for large infrastructure projects. Nine out of ten global projects worth over US$1bn in value exceed their budget or are delivered past their respective deadlines.¹ Whilst some overrun is expected where there is no clear precedent, it is clear there are gaps in knowledge across the sector which inhibits stakeholders from being able to estimate costs and foresee potential issues accurately. In the UK, projects such as the High Speed 2 (“HS2”) have been subject to intense media scrutiny due to sizeable cost increases since its conception.
In 2009, the government estimated that HS2 would cost £37.5bn (in 2009 prices) which following a review in 2019 rose to £72.1 and £78.4bn (in 2015 prices).² For example, inflation rose sharply, and ground conditions were more challenging than expected which required more structural work. Other reasons for the rise in costs stem from policy changes which led to the scope of works changing and some optimism bias from the government as to the costs and time it would take to build HS2.³ These issues highlight the need for all stakeholders to be involved at an early stage in the planning process to collaborate and remove uncertainty where it is possible to do so.
A recent report by the National Infrastructure Commission summarised the issues faced by large infrastructure projects into key problem areas: (i) a lack of clear strategic direction; (ii) challenges with project clients and sponsors; (iii) a constrained supply chain; and (iv) inefficient consenting and compliance issues. This level of uncertainty affects a contractor’s ability to make accurate forecasts which usually leads to a higher likelihood of costs exceeding budgets. Furthermore, uncertainty prevents investors from being able to make informed decisions about the likely return on investment for projects. Governmental stakeholders are also unable to make conclusive, robust, or long-term policy decisions when strategic direction can change between successive parliamentary terms.
Another major obstacle in the UK comes in the form of legal challenges. The government announced that they would be implementing reforms set out by Lord Banner KC (the “Banner Reforms”) to reduce the burden on the legal system and the infrastructure sector caused by unnecessary and unmeritorious challenges. The Banner Reforms should reduce one area of unexpected costs and delays for parties, which should be a welcome improvement for the sector.